Last week was bad. We missed all of the rivalry games.
To summarize, I picked Georgia Tech, Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas to all win their games and cover. NOBODY covered! (and GT, Clemson, and Ole Miss lost outright)
Had FloridaState to cover a huge number against Florida, and missed that one, too.
A perfect 0-6 in the rivalry games…wow.
Also missed the Falcons on Sunday, but avoided the shutout since the 49ers covered the line in a win over Jacksonville.
So, I thought it was a really bad week…until Tiger Woods completely redefined the term “really bad week”. Think of all the times Tiger has lapped the field at a PGA Tour event Sometimes he plays at a level that’s just unimaginable.
Turns out he laps the field when he screws up, as well. What first leaked as a harmless little car crash has turned into Tiger-gate. As I write this, the count is 3 mistresses and rising. It will be interesting to see if this has any affect at all on his game (the guess here is it won’t)
Before we get to this week’s picks, did you see the video on the FSU lineman who didn’t move for an entire play last week? Unbelievable video. Click below…
Last Saturday certainly took a lot of the luster off of this one. Clemson was manhandled at South Carolina, and Tech still hasn’t stopped a Georgia running play. Someone has to rebound, and we’ll go with GT. Paul Johnson should outcoach Dabo Sweeney, provided the defense can make a stop or 2.
GT covers the 1…33-27
SEC Championship Game:
This one should be low scoring; Florida’s offense is better than Alabama’s, but both teams have been surviving with defense. The Gators looked good last Saturday (but they played a reeling FSU team) and Alabama could have easily lost to Auburn. So I don’t know why I see the upset.
‘Bama 19, Florida 17 (Gators are favored by 5½)
I also like Texas to cover (-14.5) against Nebraska. And give me Pittsburgh +2.5 at home over a distracted Cincinnati team, who may lose a coach to Notre Dame by Sunday.
The Falcons are really beat up and they need a split of the next 2 games to stay alive in the playoff race. Philadelphia is at the Georgia Dome this week and New Orleans comes to town next Sunday – so maybe this week is a must-win. Chris Redman didn’t look bad at all last week.
Atlanta 23, Philadelphia 21 (line, Eagles by 6)
Jacksonville hosts a Houston team that blew a big last week against the Colts. SO will the Texans be reeling from that loss, or will they be able to rally back? I think thy still have a hangover.
Where has the season gone? How can we already be at college football’s rivalry weekend?
Anyway, just 16 months ago, Georgia was preseason #1 and Georgia Tech was breaking in a new head coach without the personnel to run his unique offense. A year and 4 months later, Georgia fans are calling for staff changes (including both coordinators) and Tech fans are ready to sign Paul Johnson to a lifetime deal. How did we get to this point?
Here’s how; last year Georgia was only disappointing because they started the year ranked #1. They still won 10 games – hardly a bad season. This season has been bad and there’s a simple reason. Mark Richt was incredibly blessed to have an NFL quarterback lining up behind center in each of his 1st 8 seasons in Athens (Greene (4 years) , Shockley (1) , and Stafford(3) ). This year he doesn’t anything close to an NFL quarterback; and quarterback is the most important position on the field in the college game. The dogs are understandably struggling. And a struggling offense does its defense no favors. Meanwhile, Paul Johnson is simply one of the most self confident coaches in the business. And he has the ability to get exactly what he needs out of his team to get the job done (just like he did at Georgia Southern and Navy). It’s not the unconventional offense; it’s the fact that he teaches it really well, his players run it to near perfection, and he knows how to adjust to whatever defense is dialed up. That isn’t going to change anytime soon. Tech will never dominate the series because Georgia is always going to recruit better than just about everyone in the country. But the days of the dogs dominating the series are over. Johnson will win at least half of the future matchups. Bank on it.
Georgia at Georgia Tech (Line, Tech by 7.5) Georgia has more talent than any team the Yellow Jackets have faced this year; I just can’t believe they’ve underachieved to this degree. Even the Georgia wins this year have been unimpressive. They just haven’t gelled in 2 years now. Will it happen this weekend; I don’t think so. Paul Johnson will have his team ready for the rivalry game; he’ll score 1 fewer point than last year but will be 2-0 against Mark Richt. GT 44, UGA 27
Alabama at Auburn (Tide -10.5) I think Alabama has been the best team in the country all year long. They’ve given up over 20 points just once all year (in the opener against Virginia Tech) and I don’t see Auburn doing anything to slow down Saban’s bunch. Alabama 23, Auburn 10
In other rivalry games, I like Texas (-21) at Texas A&M; Clemson (-3) at S Carolina; Ole Miss (-8) at Mississippi State; and the lone underdog, Florida State (+24.5) at Florida.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers (Falcons by 12) It looks like Matt Ryan may have re-discovered his rhythm last Sunday at the NY Giants. He was terrific in the 2nd half, and without ANOTHER Jason Elam miss, Atlanta might’ve topped the Giants. I think the Falcons are about to get hot. Falcons 30, Bucs 13
Jacksonville at S.F. (49ers by 3) Speaking of hot, the Jags have won 4 of 5 to get to 6-4 on the year. But look a little closer and that run isn’t much to brag about. They’ve beaten the Rams, the Chiefs, the Jets, and the Bills (4 really bad teams) by 3, 3, 2, and 3. Just about all the average NFL teams would’ve won those 4 – maybe by a wider margin. SF 23, Jax 17
OK, so how many Div 1 Head Coaches would’ve just kicked the Field Goal and forced a 2nd overtime. Almost all of them – 95%, anyway? Especially with what Georgia Tech had on the line last week; if the Yellow Jackets fall short they almost surely miss out on the ACC Championship game and a chance at a BCS bowl. Keep in mind, Tech was already 0-4 on 4th down conversions against WakeForest (although throughout the year, they’ve been pretty successful). Paul Johnson was willing to gamble the entire season on one play. If you’re a college football fan, you’ve got to love that attitude and confidence.
Of course, everything looks good when it works. About 4 minutes prior to that decision, Johnson gambled on 4th-and-8 and gave the ball back to the Deacons. Had it not been for a timely sack and penalty, the Jackets may have lost in regulation.
By the way, Coach Johnson and his offense are featured in Sport’s Illustrated this week;
The gamble worked; the Jackets converted on 4th-and-1, scored on the next play, and now Tech needs only a win at Duke to advance to the ACC Championship Game.
GT at Duke (line, Tech by 12.5)
According to the coach, the Jackets actually played poorly offensively last week, missing lots of blocking assignments and option reads. His teams rarely plays poorly 2 weeks in-a-row.
GT 44, Duke 24
Auburn at Georgia (Dogs by 4.5)
This is the oldest rivalry in the Deep South, and for the 1st time since 1991, neither team is ranked. Did Georgia gain a little confidence last week? Auburn had been struggling before a nice win over Ole Miss and a blowout of Furman last Saturday. I really have no idea here…but I still don’t trust Willie’s defense.
Auburn 27, UGA 23
I also like NC State (+8) at home over Clemson (although Clemson will win a close one), andlook for Pittsburgh (-7) to cover at home against Notre Dame, as Charlie Weis moves closer to the unemployment line.
South Carolina is getting 15.5 at home against #1 Florida –the ole ball coach will scare the Gators.
Falcons at Panthers (Falcons by 1.5)
Atlanta better play well this Sunday; the Panthers have definitely improved since they lost in Atlanta in week 2. But it looks like Michael Turner has found his form, and that running game is back on track.
Atlanta 30, Carolina 22
Jacksonville at NY Jets (Jets by 7)
The Jags are just hopelessly inconsistent and may alternate wins and losses for several more weeks. And since week 1, they haven’t been losing close ones.
Jets 26, Jags 13
And let’s load up on the blowouts again:
Saints (-13.5) at Rams
Miami (-10) vs. Tampa
Baltimore (-10.5) at Brady Quinn and Cleveland Monday Night.
Ahhhh!, the first week of November. Feels like football season out there now. And we’re halfway through the NFL season and hitting the stretch drive in the college season.
Wake Forest at #10 Georgia Tech (line, Tech - 14) Georgia Tech needs to beat only Wake Forest and Duke in the next 2 weeks to clinch their 2nd ever trip to the ACC Championship Game. Sounds easy enough, huh? But Duke looks like a pretty good offensive team and Wake should’ve beat Miami last weekend. Wake may score some points, but they won’t be able to keep up with the Yellow Jackets. Tech 43, Wake 23
Tennessee Tech at Georgia (no line) Dogs get a breather for homecoming. Joe Cox will again start at QB, and I guess there’s no indication that freshman Aaron Murray will get any playing time. That means Georgia goes into next year again with a brand new QB (or with Logan Gray…yikes) Dogs 37, TT 13
The big game this week is in the SEC West: LSU at Alabama (‘Bama - 7½) As good as Alabama has been, they still need to win this one to advance to the SEC title game. I’ll bet you whatever you like that Urban Meyer is hoping and praying for an LSU upset. Not going to happen. Alabama 20, LSU 10
I also like Clemson in a shootout over Florida State (Clemson - 8 ½) Clemson 37, FSU 27
Sunday: Washington at Atlanta (Falcons - 10) Falcons schedule eases up a bit in the coming weeks. I actually feel a little better about the season after the Sunday night loss in New Orleans. If Michael Turner has found his game, the Falcons will go 11-5…at worst. Falcons 31, Redskins 16
Kansas City at Jacksonville (Jags – 6½) Another television blackout in Jacksonville; the Jags are among the most inconsistent teams in the league. The Chiefs aren’t – they almost always stink. Jags 23, Chiefs 10
Last week: 2-6 (sorry, but we were due for a bad one) Season total: 26-23
5-3 last week (against the line)6-2 (straight up). And I’m pretty proud of the Clemson upset pick, which made the weekend especially nice for Georgia Tech fans.
24-17 on the season against the line.
Does Georgia have a chance this weekend? Florida is undefeated and ranked #1, but even Gator fans would have to admit that the team looks very beatable. Florida hasn’t scored 30 points in a game since Tim Tebow returned from the concussion. In almost any normal year, Georgia fans would be looking forward to this one with joyous thoughts of ruining the Gators season.
But this is no ordinary Georgia team; without a doubt, it’s the most mediocre group Mark Richt has assembled in his 8 plus years in Athens. The Dogs may have been robbed of a win over LSU, but they were lucky to escape with wins over South Carolina, Arkansas, and ArizonaState. And thank goodness the dogs have the best player in the SEC in AJ Green. Without him, a 4-3 record at this point would be wishful thinking.
So you’ve got an underperforming Florida offense meeting a woeful Georgia defense. Who makes who look good this Saturday? The guess here is that Florida’s offense continues to struggle; Georgia’s biggest problem has been pass defense, and the Gators aren’t scaring anyone through the air.
The Florida defense has looked fine, so it’s doubtful Georgia can score enough points to win unless we’re looking at a 20-17 final. I don’t think we are.
Take Georgia and the 15 points and look for a 27-16 Gator victory.
GT at Vanderbilt
Tech steamrolls into Nashville with a 5-game winning streak. The Commodores better have an early lead, because Tech owns the 2nd half lately. The Jackets haven’t punted in their last 17 2nd half possessions and have controlled the clock for an average of about 20 minutes after intermission.
Vandy may play decent defense, but they won’t score near enough to cover the 12.5 points.
GT 34, Vandy 16
Elsewhere, I like Ole Miss (-4.5) at suddenly struggling Auburn
And give me South Carolina (+6) at Tennessee in a game somebody will win by 3.
Last week I picked the Dolphins to upset the Saints down in Miami, and that sure looked good in the 1st half. But that Saints offense is just unbelievable, and I can’t see the Falcons covering 10 points on a road Monday night game.
New Orleans 34, Atlanta 21
Jacksonville (+3) plays at winless Tennessee, and the Titans are probably going with Vince Young as the starter over Kerry Collins. Look for Tennessee to grind out win #1
Titans 20, Jags 14
Indianapolis is so good I’ll gladly give 13 to the visiting 49ers.
And I like the Cardinals (-10) against the visiting Carolina Panthers.
